The poll considers only the valid votes, that is, excludes the null, white and undecided. Taking into account the total electorate, the score is 52% to 37% in favor of Bolsonaro. There are still 9% willing to void or vote blank, while 2% did not know how to respond.
After attending on Monday night to an event honoring Teacher's Day, Haddad reduced the difference. "We have the challenge of taking nine points from him and passing them to us. It's a difficult task, but it's much harder to stand up to his four-year term." Bolsonaro has not yet expressed his opinion on the results until this issue is concluded.
The PSL candidate leads in all regions of the country, with the exception of the Northeast, Ibope shows. In the South, Southeast and North/Midwest, it would have, respectively, 69%, 67%, and 64% of valid votes if the election were today. Already the Northeastern electorate would give Haddad 63%, against 37% to his opponent.
According to the survey, the PSL presidential candidate has much more focused support among evangelicals (74%), whites (68%) and higher income and schooling. Already in the Catholic segment, the dispute between the two candidates is more fierce: 53% for Bolsonaro and 47% for Haddad. This score is repeated in the electorate that declares itself to be black or brown.
The PSL candidate leads among women, by 54% to 46%, but his advantage in relation to Haddad among men is much higher: 64% to 36%.
Haddad's rejection is higher: 47%
Ibope also measured the potential voting power of each of the competitors. After citing the names of the candidates, the interviewers asked voters whether they would vote for each one for sure, whether they could vote or not vote at all.
Bolsonaro has the most convicted sympathizers: 41% would vote for him with certainty, and 35% would not vote at all. Haddad is the one who has the biggest rejection: 47% would not choose him in any way; another 28% expressed certainty in the choice.
Ibope heard a total of 2,506 voters on October 13th and 14th. The margin of error is two percentage points more or less, and the confidence interval is 95%. This means that there is a probability of 95% that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.
Source: GMB/ Estadão
