In comments made to the news media ahead of the recent Super Bowl, when asked about the potential for legalised sports-betting in the US Trump said "what I’d do is I’d sit down with the commissioners.”
"I would be talking to them, and we’ll see how they feel about it. Some would not want it, and probably others — and I’ve read others maybe do. But I would certainly want to get their input and get the input from the various leagues, and we’ll see how they feel about it. I’d also get the input from lots of law enforcement officials, because, obviously, that’s a big step.”
Given this somewhat non-committal response, the Morgan Stanley team reported that Geoff Freeman, the chief executive of the AGA, believes that meaningful progress on sports-betting could be made within the next two-to-four years.
They speculate that the repeal of PASPA - the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act which limits sports-betting to Nevada and Delaware – is the likeliest route to future liberalisation, opening up potential intra-state markets.
"Repealing PASPA is generally viewed as having a much greater likelihood to pass Congress, which would keep sports betting intra-state,” the analysts state. "As we have learned from the roll-out of online gambling in the US (which has a real threat of being abolished, without grandfathering of existing states), state by state growth limits the scale of the opportunity.”
The M Stanley team note that New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania are among the estates that have recently made noises with regard to potentially opening up legal sports-betting.
The AGA made much at the time of the recent Super Bowl LI of
the amount that was likely to be wagered illegally on the game, suggesting a
total of US$ 4.5 billion. Of this, the AGA suggested a mere US$ 138m would be
wagered legally in Nevada.
As for the potential size of the market, the AGA estimates a market worth US$ 10.5
billion in net gaming revenue. The Morgan Stanley team noted that a
state-by-state rollout would likely limit the size of the market, but added
that the wider adoption of in-play betting could enlarge the market.
Source: GMB / Totally Gaming
