Candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) has 58% of valid votes in the first Datafolha poll released after the first round of the 2018 Brazilian elections. Fernando Haddad (PT) has 42%. The count does not consider white, null, and undecided votes.
Considering the answers of all the interviewees, the federal deputy of the PSL maintains the lead with 49% of the intentions of voting, while the former mayor of São Paulo has 36%. Whites and nulls add up to 8% while they do not know or did not respond account for 6% of the total.
The institute heard 3,235 people on Wednesday. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The survey, contracted by Folha de S.Paulo and TV Globo, was registered with the TSE with the number BR-00214/2018.
Bolsonaro reached the second round with the preference of 46.03% of the electorate (or 49.2 million votes). Haddad had 29.28% of the valid votes (31.3 million votes).
The result shows an increase in Bolsonaro's advantage over his opponent. If the two were technically tied on the eve of the election (with 45% for the federal deputy against 43% for Haddad), now the difference is 13 percentage points considered the total votes.
The historical Datafolha series shows that this is the biggest advantage that one candidate imposes on the other in the runoff of the second round of a presidential election since 2002. At that time, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) achieved 64% of valid votes against 36% of José Serra (PSDB). Previous research has also shown that to win the election, Haddad will need an unprecedented feat: never a candidate who started the second stage behind the opponent succeeded - in 2014, Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) were in technical tie at this point.
In the first round, Bolsonaro had 46% of the valid votes, while Haddad reached 29%. According to Datafolha, the potential of the candidate of the PSL grew, in the majority, by the adhesions of voters who in the first round chose Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) and João Amoêdo (Novo). Among voters of the former governor of São Paulo, 42% said they are now voting in Bolsonaro, while 30% said they will choose Haddad. Regarding the Amoecid electorate, 49% said they preferred the PSL candidate, and 18% said they would choose the PT.
In Haddad's case, the most expressive percentages of support came from voters of Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Marina Silva (Rede). In the portion that the former governor of Ceará chose in the first round, 58% now affirmed that they will vote for the PT, while 19% prefer Bolsonaro. Among Marina's voters, 37% want to choose Haddad, and 18% said they will migrate to the reserve captain. The PDT has already declared support for Haddad, but there is still no definition on Cyrus's role in the second round.