LUN 20 DE MAYO DE 2024 - 12:29hs.
New Ibope survey

Brazil’s elections: Bolsonaro and Haddad would reach a technical tie in second round

A new survey by Ibope, commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, records that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) has 31% of the intentions to vote; Fernando Haddad (PT), 21%; and Ciro Gomes (PDT), 11%. Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) was cited by 8% of respondents. In the simulation of scenarios in the second round, Haddad and Bolsonaro (already said to consider gaming legalization), would both reach, tied, 42%.

Alvaro Dias (Podemos) and Henrique Meirelles (MDB), both have 2% of the voting intentions. Cape Daciolo (Patriot) was quoted by 1%. Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), Vera Lúcia (PSTU) and Eymael (DC) did not score. João Goulart Filho (PPL) was not mentioned in any answer.

Twelve percent of voters interviewed said they will vote blank or void; and 5% said they did not know who to vote for or refused to respond.

Ibope's research was conducted from Saturday (29) to Sunday (30), with 3,010 voters in 208 municipalities. According to the institute, the confidence level is 95%. The margin of error is two percentage points more or less. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (BR-08650/2018).

2nd round

As in previous researches, Ibope still simulated scenarios in the second round. In the dispute between Fernando Haddad and Jair Bolsonaro, both would reach, tied, 42% of the intentions of vote. In this scenario, 14% of votes would be blank and void; and 3% declare not knowing.

Comparison

According to Ibope, Jair Bolsonaro grew four percentage points in the intentions of the vote between the September 26th survey (27%) and the one released today. Fernando Haddad remained with 21% of the intentions of voting and Ciro Gomes oscillated of 12% to 11%. Geraldo Alckmin remained with 8%.

Marina Silva negatively fluctuated two percentage points between the two surveys. João Amoêdo (3%), Alvaro Dias (2%) and Henrique Meirelles (2%) received the same proportions of voting intentions.

The proportion of voters who indicated a blank or void vote ranged from 11% to 12%. As for respondents who did not know or did not want to respond, the percentage ranged from 7% to 5%.

Rejection

Among the respondents who declared "in no way" to vote for the candidates, Jair Bolsonaro kept the rejection at 44% and Fernando Haddad at 38%, 11% points higher than the one observed in the September 26th poll. Marina Silva's rejection ranged from 27% to 25%; Geraldo Alckmin kept 19% and Ciro Gomes ranged from 16% to 18%.

Source: GMB / Agencia Brasil