The research that Datafolha released yesterday (October 25) brought some encouragement to the the candidate Fernando Haddad, who grew three percentage points and reduced the difference with the favorite Jair Bolsonaro (PSL). Only three days before the second round, the score in the valid votes is 56% for Bolsonaro against 44% of Haddad (reduction of six percentage points).
The right wing candidate gets 48% (against 50% a week ago), compared to 38% of the PT (35%): the difference between them fell by 5 percentage points, which should serve the PT campaign to encourage its supporters to try convince undecided voters (6%) and voters who say they will vote blank or void (8%).
The institute interviewed 9,173 voters in 341 cities on Wednesday and Thursday for this survey, with a margin of error of two points. Datafolha numbers are not identical to Tuesday's Ibope numbers, but they go in the same direction. Bolsonaro exhibits a negative trend.
The latest figures from the institute linked to Folha are even better for Haddad because they show the advance of three points in a week. The rejection of the PT also rocked down (it is 52% now and it was 54%), while that of Bolsonaro has risen (it is now 44% and before it was 41%).
There were significant changes among voters according to income. Among the richest (income of more than 10 minimum salaries), the most resistant to Haddad, Bolsonaro falls from 67% to 61%. Haddad was 24% to 32%. The change with the most impact in the total occurred among the poorest (up to 2 minimum salaries): the PT candidate goes from 44% to 47% while the deputy goes of 39% and 37% in the follow-up.
"A small possibility of turning"
"I would say today's result opens a small possibility of a turnaround, but the favoritism remains for Bolsonaro," Datafolha director Mauro Paulino told GloboNews.
The picture sparked an alert in the PSL campaign: a negative trend with so little voting time could produce dangerous effects. The result appears in a bad week for the right wing campaign.
The federal deputy had to apologize to the ministers of the Federal Supreme Court after statements by his son threatening the court began circulating on social networks. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) and the Federal Police have also been investigating since Friday that companies illegally file mass shootings via WhatsApp to benefit them, according to a report in Folha.
On Wednesday, the Army reserve captain Bolsonaro used a real-time conversation with his Facebook followers to get allies in Sao Paulo, where, according to Ibope, he lost to the former mayor of the city, Haddad.
"We appeal to the deputies and senators who are not concerned about the campaigns for the governor of their state. I see São Paulo, for example ... A fight in São Paulo. Instead of fighting for the vote for me, they stand there supporting one candidate against another. You have to give a proper answer. For God's sake, deputies elected in São Paulo! Your goal is Jair Bolsonaro. Then it's França or Doria," "he said. According to Datafolha, João Doria (PSDB) and Márcio França (PSB) are tied in total votes: 43% X 40%.
Source: GMB
