LUN 20 DE MAYO DE 2024 - 18:15hs.
Decision of the new president

What to expect from Bolsonaro: State gaming release, not federal

Although his convictions and the evangelist group that supported him are not close to the legalization of gaming, the new president of Brazil plans to free the governors to decide in each state, according to their needs, if they give the green light to the activity, in a process similar to what is happening in the United States with sports betting. This Bolsonaro’s idea can delay the votes of the federal projects that are being currently discussed in both Houses.

Jair Bolsonaro is not a man who supports the indiscriminate opening of the gaming activity in Brazil. On the contrary, his convictions indicate that if it were for him he would maintain the current situation of prohibition of casinos, online bets, bingos, jogo do bicho, etc. However, being a non-traditional politician, is a man who knows how to listen and does not close in his thoughts but evaluates what is best for the country.

The economic context of Brazil is not ideal and there are many storm fronts that the new president will have to face to overcome this crisis. For all projects, money is needed, investments must be increased, and tax collections of already regulated or new activities that can be added must be improved. That is why both Bolsonaro and his economic team have a decision taken: free the states to be their governors and representatives who decide whether or not to legalize gaming independently and not federally.

In addition to being elected president of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) also won victories in the states in which there was a second round. Of the 14 local disputes, including the Federal District (DF), the former Army captain will have the support of 11 governors who won the elections yesterday. Bolsonaro will rule the country with strong states at his side, such as Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul, which confirmed the victories of Wilson Witzel (PSC), João Dória (PSDB), Romeu Zuma (Novo), and Eduardo Leite (PSDB), respectively. Zuma is the first governor of Novo.

Although those governors have not yet pronounced on the legalization of the activity, it is unofficially known that several of them are in favor of adding an activity that leaves millions of reals in taxes and generates thousands of jobs. The proximity of these governors to Bolsonaro will facilitate a fluid dialogue with Planalto that will not oppose what the states choose to do on the subject. It is not imaginable a total opening of the market, perhaps it is done more slowly and starting with cassinos and sports betting.

The projects that are handled today in the Parliament seek to approve the activity in a federal manner, under the umbrella of a single law. The presidents of the Senate and Chamber of Deputies must put them to the vote, something that does not seem close since there are other priorities. Even, it would be strange that the ones leading these cameras include such a sensitive issue now that they must fight for re-election to stay ahead, as is the case with the deputy Rodrigo Maia himself. In order to obtain the support of Bolsonaro and to remain in his positions, it would not be "convenient" to propose a vote on a subject of which the position of the new president is already known: State yes, federal no.

During the campaign, the legalization of gaming was not discussed directly. Just at the beginning, the new president had raised his contrary but open ideas to leave the issue in the hands of the states. But in the week prior to the second round, however, an information was filtered in a local media: a team of Jair Bolsonaro discusses the legalization of cassinos in Brazil. The information is true since the sectors that support the activity in the country have brought figures and business numbers to the new president.

From those rumors, in the powerful evangelical bloc doubts arose on the true intentions of Bolsonaro and the polls began to show a diminution of the support to the candidate who made to lower the breach between him and Fernando Haddad, among other reasons. There is no demographic group that has grown in the last decades in Brazil as well as evangelicals. According to the census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), evangelicals represented 6.6% of the population in 1980. 30 years later, in the 2010 census, the percentage was already 22.2%. By 2018, the percentage is estimated to be even higher.

It is therefore not surprising that surveys show that, among all demographic groups and all categories that distinguish them - gender, age, schooling, income, region, ethnicity and religion - it is precisely the evangelicals who most support Jair Bolsonaro, candidate of the Social Liberal Party (PSL). In the Datafolha survey published on October 25, 59% of evangelicals declared their vote in Bolsonaro and only 26% chose Fernando Haddad of the Workers' Party.

That is why in his last appearances prior to the second round and through Facebook, Bolsonaro came out to strongly deny his support for the establishment of casinos in the country. His public reaction calmed the sector that most supported him to reach the power. Already located in Planalto, the reality may be different and the new president would free the governors to decide the best for each State according to their needs, beyond his convictions.

Source: GMB