Produced in conjunction with iGaming Business and ICE Sports Betting USA, “H2 Gambling Capital’s US Sports Betting: The Road to 2030”, described the repeal of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) as the gambling industry’s biggest opportunity in a decade.
It said that due to the rapid roll-out of regulations, the US sports betting market is set to grow from the ninth-largest in the world to the fifth-largest by the end of 2018.
By 2023, H2 estimates that the US will grow to be larger than established markets such as the UK and Italy, rising to the world’s third-largest, before moving up into second place behind China by 2030.
"Undoubtedly the biggest takeaway is US sports betting (unlike US igaming before it) coming straight out the blocks,” H2 Gambling Capital director David Henwood said of the findings. "The big difference is this wasn’t a standing start. Although sports betting was only 0.2% of all legal US gambling pre 14 May, some US$196 billion was being bet on sport illegally.”
However, the report also said that a range of factors will limit the growth of sports betting across the US. This, it said, means that while the market may see revenue climb as high as US$25 billion by that year, it is more likely to generate revenue of US$8 billion, realising around 33% of its full potential.
H2 estimated that around 20 states will not regulate sports betting by 2030, accounting for a loss of US$5.5 billion from the potential US$25 billion in revenue. Rates of taxation are also expected to have a significant impact on US market size, with higher tax rates reducing revenue generated.
Mobile could also have a major impact. While the channel is a key driver of revenue in Europe – online and mobile betting is expected to account for 62% of total sportsbook revenue by 2023 – only 12 states are expected to regulate mobile wagering. This is likely to cut around US$4 billion from the US$25 billion forecast.
Finally, the supply chain for sports betting will be also affect market size. H2 notes that certain states may limit the vertical to monopoly operators, or only allow wagering to be offered via a limited number of facilities such as casinos, racetracks or racinos. This could stunt market growth by as much as US$3.3 billion.
Source: GMB / iGaming Business
