MAR 23 DE DICIEMBRE DE 2025 - 08:17hs.
Ibope Research

Brazil Elections: Bolsonaro stagnates at 28% and Haddad shortens distance reaching 22%

Presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is leading the race with 28% of voters' intentions but has stopped growing, according to a new Ibope poll released this week. It is the first time since August 20 - and since the knife attack he suffered- that the PSL candidate did not even swing positively (in the previous survey he also had 28%). Bolsonaro would not oppose gaming legalization while Haddad's position is still unknown.

Still hospitalized, Bolsonaro receives other negative news: he saw rejection grow from 42% to 46%. He also saw PT candidate Fernando Haddad (PT) getting closer. The name supported by former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva grew from 19% to 22%.

In the second round simulations, Haddad left the tie position and now beat Bolsonaro by 43% to 37%. The federal deputy would also lose in the direct confrontation with Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB). He would only draw a tie with Marina Silva (Rede).
 


The figures compiled by Ibope, that heard 2,506 voters between Saturday 22 and Sunday 23, confirm the consolidation of Haddad in the second place, isolating himself from the others. Ciro did not move: he continues with 11%. Marina has swung down and has 5%. Geraldo Alckmin, owner of the biggest TV time, has oscillated up by one point and has 8%. The margin of error is two points, plus or minus.

If the TV campaign did not improve Alckmin position, his ads against Bolsonaro seem to start scratching the image of the deputy. The artillery against the candidacy also involved other contrary movements. One of them is the mobilization of women against him, who under #nothim attracts celebrities like singer Anitta.

On another front, a growing group of personalities unite around a manifesto for democracy that rejects the PSL's candidacy. As a result, within a week, the rejection of the retired Army captain rose four points.

It is the first time since the attack that the rate of rejection, considered a good thermometer for the viability of the second round applications, has risen. Before the attack, on September 6th, rejection marked 44%. Shortly thereafter the episode it dropped to 41%.

Source: GMB / El Pais Brasil