The candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) oscillated two percentage points up in two weeks and, with 22% of the voting intentions, is still in the lead of the presidential race in Brazil, according to Ibope / Estado / TV Globo poll released on Wednesday (5/9). Ciro Gomes (PDT) climbed three points, from 9% to 12%, and tied numerically with Marina Silva (Rede), which maintained the level of the previous survey, released on August 20.
The preference of Geraldo Alckmin, who holds almost half the time of free election time in the media and represents the largest coalition of the dispute, went from 7% to 9%.
In the first poll after the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) barred the candidacy of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the PT candidate Fernando Haddad appears with 6%, two points above that registered in the previous Ibope survey. Originally enrolled as Lula's deputy, Haddad must soon assume the position of the leader.
In the second round simulations in the 2018 elections, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) loses to Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 44% to 33% - Marina Silva (Network) - 43% to 33% - and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) - 41% to 32% - and technically ties with Fernando Haddad (PT) - 36% for the former mayor and 37% for the deputy - according to Ibope / Estado / TV Globo new poll.
Although none of the candidates publicly reported their position in the campaign against the legalization of gaming in Brazil (the issue was not discussed in any debate), it can be said that Jair Bolsonaro has a somewhat ambiguous position. Years ago he was against but in recent times he opened a door to analyze the advantages and endorse the opening with strong controls. Of the rest, Geraldo Alckmin is the presidential candidate who would most support the cause while Marina and Ciro are more reluctant to enable the activity in the country.
In the simulations of second-round disputes, the Northeast appears as the most problematic region for Bolsonaro. There he would lose by a large margin to the candidates of the PDT (55% to 21%), of Rede (51% to 24%), the PSDB (46% to 22%) and the PT (43% to 27%). Curiously, Alckmin would win the PSL candidate more easily in the Northeast than in his region, the Southeast (where the score would be 39% to 35% for the toucan).
The captain of the reserve leads the question of rejection: 44% would not vote for him at all. Next came Marina (26%), Haddad (23%), Alckmin (22%) and Ciro (20%).
Ibope heard 2,002 voters in 142 municipalities from 1 to 3 September. The margin of error of the survey is two percentage points more or less, and the confidence interval is 95%. This means that there is a probability of 95% of the results portraying the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error. The registration in the Electoral Court was done under protocol BR-05003/2018. The contractors were the State and TV Globo.
Research interviews began on Saturday (1 st), the day after the start of voting time on media - there was therefore no time to fully capture the impact of the candidates' advertising impact on radio and TV. One change was clear, however: there was a significant decrease in the electorate's willingness to vote void or blank, from 29% to 21%. The indecisive rate swung down, from 9% to 7%.
Source: GMB
