The brokerage said its estimated growth acceleration for this year’s GGR was “back-ended” – i.e. was likely to occur mostly in the second half of the year – due to a likely VIP segment rebound at that point in the calendar. The institution also anticipated a 10% growth in the Macau industry’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for this year.
“Overall, we are forecasting GGR growth of 8% year-on-year in 2020,” noted Sanford Bernstein analysts Vitaly Umansky, Kelsey Zhu and Eunice Lee.
Regarding Macau VIP GGR for 2020, Sanford Bernstein anticipated 6% growth – after a first-half contraction – versus a full-year consensus estimate – compiled by business information service Bloomberg based on responses from Asia sell-side analysts, at “-5%”.
Most high-stakes Macau gambling customers are thought to come from mainland China. But the city’s casino bets are generally denominated in the Hong Kong dollar, a currency pegged against the United States dollar.
Regarding Macau’s mass GGR, Sanford Bernstein said it grow by 9% year-on-year for 2020; with an even better performance than that being “achievable.”
“A fundamental growth constraint for Macau in 2019 was hotel room availability,” the institution stated. This would be alleviated in 2020 with the increase in hotel room capacity from different new facilities of leading companies such as Sands China, Wynn Macau and SJM Holdings.
Sanford Bernstein also cited infrastructure development in and around Macau as a positive to the city’s visitor volume and mass gaming business.
Source: GMB / GGR Asia
