The conclusions of a study commissioned by the Stanleybet Group board to the Department of Robotics of the Liverpool company, in relation to the presumed trend of the Covid-19 epidemic in the coming weeks, are now known and have been communicated to all Stanley branches in Europe. ‘Robotics’ is the same department that is creating the Alicia humanoid robot and that uses cutting-edge techniques for the animation of virtual products. A mathematical model interpreted the pandemic as if it were carried by a swarm of hostile robots.
Every single virus was considered as if it were a small robot ('nanorobot') and its effects were analyzed, in relation to its movements, with the same logistical forecasting techniques connected to the simultaneous movement of millions of software drones with a very low level of cooperation (swarms). It is a technique developed for the first time in the world at Magellan Robotech for specialized software capable of simulating movements of virtual entities, but with a high level of cooperation. A specific mathematical model made it possible to overcome the difficulty in identifying the correct level of swarm cooperation in the case of application to the pandemic.
Data from the Italian Civil Protection and Health Authorities of the various countries, as well as data from the World Health Organisation, have been included in the model, seasonally adjusted with econometric techniques similar to those used to stabilize the data used in the forecast models of the economic research institutes.
Moreover, forecasts about the various countries’ citizens behaviors have been added on, in relation to their level of obedience to the prescriptions of the authority. Single forecasting models were created for China and for the eight countries where the Stanleybet Group is present with its activities: England, Denmark, Belgium, Italy, Romania, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus. China, having now very stabilized data, has been used as a 'patient' of control and a point of reference, to assign different ‘levels of obedience' to other authorities that are numerically calibrated on the Chinese maximum.
According to the Magellan’s model, Italy already reached its peak 4 days ago, on March 27th; after that date, the number of new infected has started to decrease and it will continue its reduction with an increasing logarithmic trend, reaching its minimum (zero infections) on 7 May 2020. The margin of error should be considered in 4 days in advance or further. The success percentage for the model is 88%. According to Magellan Robotech, therefore, the number of new infections could be zero at any time between 3 and 11 May, but the most likely date is the date of 7 May. Starting from that date on, it will be necessary that everyone will keep the utmost prudence in their behaviors for at least another 14 days.
The green light from the Italian government to a resumption for all the activities across Italy can, therefore, be estimated for the last week of May.
Giovanni Garrisi, Stanleybet Group CEO, who created the mathematical model used by Magellan, raised his warning via telephone from his home in Malta: "I hope that the forecasts of our research department are correct, at least substantially. There is however a risk. In fact, our model shows that the infections’ trend in the coming days will collapse with an exponential decrease rate. In a nutshell, we will see the newly infected people decrease every day with surprising rapidity, but then the curve will settle in a nerve-wracking swing, day by day until it reaches zero infections in early May. It is possible, therefore, that a sense of euphoria will be generated in the coming days, between 7 and 15 April, as if the problem would be overcome.”
“But I would advise paying attention because it is not! A slowdown in compliance with the recommendations from the authorities could generate a new spread of the pandemic. We all must stay at home above and beyond the day declared as ‘zero infections’ day’. Whether we all will be rigorous to the authorities’ prescriptions, the whole gaming industry should start thinking that the reopening will not be beyond the end of May," he concluded.
Source: GMB
