The institution said its latest Macau forecast was for VIP GGR to decline by 36% year-on-year in 2020, while mass-market GGR might dip by 38%. It said the updated numbers were in light of the various travel restrictions in place to combat the novel coronavirus pandemic.
The brokerage reckoned that Macau’s GGR could see a “solid 74% rebound” in terms of year-on-year growth, in 2021. It assumes authorities in mainland China – a key source market for Macau gaming patrons – resume from May China’s exit visa scheme for independent travellers – known as the individual visit scheme (IVS)-, then resume issuing group-tour visas in the “latter part of summer” 2020.
The restart of Macau’s transport links to its feeder markets as well as an expected gradual improvement in China’s economy with the fourth quarter in likelihood “back to normal levels” of growth help form Sanford Bernstein’s view, according to its Thursday note.
There has been no clarity so far regarding when the IVS programme might restart, with Macau’s gaming and tourism trade – including its junket segment - much battered by the virus crisis.
In a recent press conference, the city’s Secretary for Economy and Finance, Lei Wai Nong, said the city’s government could only make representations for resumption of the IVS programme – a matter that would in any case require approval from China’s central government – once the novel coronavirus situation “further stabilises” in Macau and mainland China.
Source: GMB / GGR Asia
