The scenarios are bleak for the economy, as the fall in GDP in the order of 4.7%. Before the pandemic, the government predicted a positive change of 0.02%. It is walking sideways, but still, it is not running backwards. It is the biggest drop in GDP since 1901.
The Ministry of Economy estimated that each week of isolation prevents the country from producing R$20 billion (US$ 3.4b) in wealth. And, to make things worse, the Union's spending on combating the virus and its consequences, including emergency aid of R$ 600 (US$ 103), leads to a budget deficit of R$ 600 billion (US$ 103b). And another data from the economic team says that if the paralysis due to the pandemic remains until the end of the year, the number of dismissals, due to bankruptcies, can reach 5 million.
In this scenario, the lobby for the legalization of gambling gains strength. The figures presented by the sector states more than R$20 billion (US$3.4b) in collection, without including another R$7 billion (US$1.2b) that would enter the public coffers with grants, concessions and licenses. Not counting the 1.3 million direct and indirect jobs created from the change in legislation.
Although during the Bolsonaro campaign he stated that casinos, if allowed in the country, “would serve to money laundering” and “destroy families”, throughout the first year he gave indications that he would defend the idea if the evangelical group were convinced to at least keep neutral on the issue. The president does not want to lose the status of defender of the family, allowing the practice, which in the opinion of the segment, could lead to its ruin. Bolsonaro counts evangelicals to keep his one-third of supporters.
There are some suggestions on the president's desk. One of them is to convince the President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, with whom he has a good dialogue, to guide the project on the theme of Senator Ciro Nogueira, President of the PP - party of the center of the most enthusiastic about the exchange of positions for support. A lobbyist outlines the script. “Alcolumbre takes the proposal, which is ready, to the plenary with the argument of economic urgency. In the Chamber, after passing through the Senate, the text could have attached the project of deputy Guilherme Mussi (SP) [also from the PP], ending the process cycle again in the Senate.”
According to this lobbyist, the Mayor of Rio de Janeiro, Marcelo Crivella, bishop-graduate and nephew of Edir Macedo, founder of Universal church and main ideologue of the Republicans on national issues, can help convince Bolsonaro of criticism from the bench. Crivella is interested in installing a casino in the port area of Rio de Janeiro.
Another way in case there is no political agreement with evangelical leaders is for the government to present a plan to change a constitutional amendment, extending to the states the possibility of defining whether and how they want to regulate the activity in their territories. The burden of being upset with evangelicals would rest with the governors.
In January, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro was in Las Vegas, where he met with Sheldon Adelson, casino mogul, and returned enchanted. Representative Hélio Lopes and Embratur's president, Gilson Machado, a businessman in the hotel sector in Recife, were with him in that case. Machado supports the activity and defends the liberation of casinos. They came back from Las Vegas with data, again, economical. In the United States, the gambing industry generates 1.7 million jobs in more than two hundred professions and remunerates its workers at US$74 billion a year.
While articulating for the liberation of casinos and gambling modalities, the government is moving to regulate sports betting, sanctioned at the end of 2018 by President Michel Temer. Without regulations, betting sites advertise in the country and even sponsor football teams but keep their CNPJs - and taxes - outside Brazil. Wagner Eustáquio Marques Júnior, the undersecretary of Prizes and Raffles of the Ministry of Economy, stated newspaper VEJA that he believes that the sector will be regulated until the beginning of next year. At the moment, the topic is with the BNDES for pre-concession studies.
“We need to move the economy in the post-pandemic”, says the undersecretary. According to him, there are still no studies on the collection expected for the concessions or on how much tax it will generate for the country when the companies are established in Brazil, but he is certain that “the countries where there are regulations for these bets will have this money extra to help with accounts after the virus.”
Source: GMB / Veja
