JUE 28 DE MARZO DE 2024 - 23:04hs.
In case of a vote

For O Globo, "Novo Centro" block of deputies may be a key to release casinos in Brazil

Brazil’s main newspaper published an article explaining that the Centrão in the Chamber (block of deputies that gathers parliamentarians from the center and center-right) is divided between the Bolsonaro wing and the one linked to Rodrigo Maia. According to lawmakers, the House is divided in three groups and none has a majority. With about 153 votes, the “New Center” would remain the pendulum if there is a controversial vote such as the release of casinos that is supported by the Planalto - the official workplace of the Brazilian President. The proposal has not yet been formalized.

Arthur Lira (AL), leader of the PP (Progressives), captained an alliance between ten parties to compose the “new base” of the government: PP, PL, PSD, Solidarity, Republicans, Patriot, PROS, PTB, Avante and PSC. Counting a part of the PSL loyal to Bolsonaro, it is composed of about 230 deputies out of a total of 512.

The President of the Chamber of Deputies Rodrigo Maia, on the other hand, tries to articulate the other parties in a group he calls “Novo Centro” (New Center). This group - composed of parties DEM, MDB, PSDB, Pode, Cidadania, PV, Novo and the other half of the PSL - did not participate in the last round of position negotiations with Planalto.

With about 153 votes, the “New Center” would remain the pendulum of the House if there is a controversial vote. At that moment, issues that could divide the Chamber are the land tenure regularization project and the one that makes arms registration more flexible. In addition, Planalto defends the release of casinos in Brazil, a proposal that has not yet been formalized.

In the two wings of the center, there is caution regarding these issues. The diagnosis is that no one is ready for a fidelity test. Eventually, there may be betrayals, both from the grassroots and from the leaders - privately, even leaders from the “bolsonarista center” are refractory to the arms agenda, for example.

The liberal economic agenda, on the other hand, has been going well, since it has convergence in the center-right. That week, Arthur Lira served as an informal government leader to reduce the fiscal impact of extending the payroll tax exemption. In the Chamber, he was already nicknamed “04” by his colleagues, in reference to the numbering of Bolsonaro's children.

The DEM has an identity with the economic agenda, but not with the customs topics, and prefers to have autonomy to diverge in these guidelines - says the leader of the DEM in the Chamber, Efraim Filho (PB).

Successor of Maia

In the three “wings” of the Chamber, there is a division around the election to the Presidency of the House in 2021 - Maia's group will probably support Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB). Despite being from the PP, Aguinaldo is part of the independent wing. Arthur Lira is also a candidate and has the new proximity to Bolsonaro to be elected president.

The DEM is also eyeing an alliance with the governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), for 2022. The proximity to the toucans makes Bolsonaristas distrust the Democrats. Efraim Filho denies, however, that this has any weight and says that it is too early to think about 2022.

Another center party that did not ask for positions in this last wave is the MDB. According to its parliamentarians, the party depends more on city halls than the others. That is why President Baleia Rossi (SP) considers that it is risky to carry the slogan of a government official in the elections. For the time being, MDB deputies agree with another relevant initiative of Bolsonaro's political articulation: the payment of “extra” funds, in addition to parliamentary amendments, to prefectures of the allied base. After the elections, the MDB should assess the possibility of taking on more positions.

In the PSD, although the party leader joined the government block, there are between four and six deputies opposed to the more conservative government agenda, such as Fabio Trad (MS) and Otto Filho (BA).

Source: GMB / O Globo