As reported by local news outlet Inside Asian Gaming, the governments of Macau and Guangdong Province have mutually agreed to ease border restrictions on citizens returning to mainland China, with all visitors crossing borders between Macau and Guangdong Province no longer required to undergo 14-day mandatory quarantine. They will, however need to show a negative COVID-19 test result within the previous seven days and hold “green” health codes of Macau and Guangdong.
With Guangdong Province accounting for around 46% of all mainland Chinese visitors to Macau in 2019 and between 30% to 35% of GGR, analysts estimated that GGR levels would immediately see a spike upon the easing of quarantine requirements.
“With only Guangdong to be reopened and no re-issuance of IVS yet (existing visa will be expiring soon and players can mainly use business visa), in the near term we believe GGR could recover gradually to 15% to 25% of pre-COVID levels,” said Credit Suisse analysts Kenneth Fong, Lok Kan Chan and Rebecca Law. The trio noted that Macau’s GGR before the 14-day quarantine for residents returning to Guangdong was first imposed on 27 March was around 30% of usual levels.
JP Morgan’s analysts DS Kim, Derek Choi and Jeremy An estimate a more significant recovery should the IVS visa scheme also be reinstated soon to roughly 70% of normal levels, with VIP revenue potentially growing to between 80% and 90% and mass between 50% and 60%.
“Once the Macau-Guangdong travel bubble is proven successful (e.g. no hike in COVID-19 for a few weeks), we believe China’s government could further open up the border to non-Guangdong in phases, along with the resumption of visas,” the analysts said.
“We are hopeful that industry GGR could fully recover by around 2Q of next year unless there is another wave of COVID-19 in China.”
Source: GMB / Inside Asian Gaming