VIE 27 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2020 - 03:20hs.
Morgan Stanley forecast

Macau’s GGR to fall 60% in 2020

Morgan Stanley reported that it now expects Macau’s 2020 gross gambling revenue (GGR) to fall 60%, compared with its earlier forecast for a 55% decline, though has raised its forecasts for recovery for the next two years. The firm said the cuts reflect a weak second quarter performance and slower pace of travel recovery.

Although Guangdong province has now removed quarantine restrictions for travel to Macau, China still has not begun issuing individual visit scheme (IVS) visas, which are seen as key to speeding recovery.

Morgan Stanley said it expects GGR to increase by 110% in 2021, compared with its prior estimate of a 90% gain and sees a 20% rise for 2022, compared with 15% previously. 

The firm sees 2021 GGR of US$31.1 billion, which would be 15% lower than 2019 and sees US$37.3 billion for 2022, similar to pre-crisis levels. 

For the third quarter, Morgan Stanley is expecting GGR of US$3.6 billion unless IVS is reinstated sooner than expected. However, it does expect industry EBITDA to break even, despite lower revenue and a poorer mix, due to cost cutting.

Apart from a two week closure in February at the height of the pandemic, Macau’s casinos have been open, though there has been minimal visitation.

GGR for April, May and June showed declines of more than 95% after border restrictions were imposed to prevent imported cases of COVID-19.

Source: GMB / Casino Life Magazine