According to its reports, the institution estimated that Macau’s GGR was on average about US$43.8 million for July 1 through July 5, equal to US$8.75 million per day.
Analysts Vitaly Umansky, Tianjiao Yu and Kelsey Zhu wrote: “Month-to-date average daily revenue (ADR) is down 91% compared to July 2019 (ADR US$99 million) and up 193% compared to June 2020 (ADR US$3 million) and up 23% compared to May 2020 (ADR US$7.15 million).”
Travel restrictions remain “in place which continues to limit visitation and revenue,” they added.
According to official data, Macau ‘s June casino GGR declined by 97.0% year-on-year to US$89.7 million. The monthly tally puts first half GGR on the Macau market at US$4.2bn.
“At this stage, we cannot estimate July GGR with any confidence as we have no clarity on the timing of cross-border travel and individual visit scheme (IVS) resumption,” the Bernstein team noted.
There are currently no quarantine restrictions on the majority of mainland Chinese entering Macau, but those wishing to return to the mainland after a visit to Macau are currently subject to a 14-day quarantine period. There are however restrictions on Chinese authorities issuing exit visas to travel to Macau for mainlanders.
People’s movements between Macau and Hong Kong are still still usually subject to a quarantine period of 14 days in either direction. The government of Hong Kong recently announced that it has extended its deadline for those arriving from Macau, mainland China and Taiwan to August 7 for the end of that rule.
Sanford Bernstein said it is currently predicting a 44% year-on-year decline in Macau 2020 GGR, “followed by a rebound of over 96% in 2021.”
The brokerage added: “This forecast is based on our prior estimates around travel resumption,” and was “likely to change depending on the timeliness of the lifting of travel restrictions and visa implementation”.
Source: GMB / Inkedin