The document was prepared by the ministry headed by Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) at the request of the Attorney General's Office (AGU). The request was made because of a lawsuit in the Federal Supreme Court (STF) that requests the suspension of the betting law.
The sector is undergoing regulation by the Lula government, led by the team of Minister Fernando Haddad (Finance).
The action was initiated by the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC). The entity says that the expansion of gambling in Brazil has triggered household debt and considerably harmed the domestic economy, retail trade and social development.
The document from the Ministry of Development argues that the country's trade data does not allow for a slowdown in the sector. The technical note, signed last Friday (4), provides data on the performance of the retail sector.
"Data provided by IBGE indicate that trade in Brazil is growing, with retail sales showing the following variations: In July 2024, sales grew 0.6% compared to June. In the first half of 2024, retail trade accumulated growth of 5.3%. In the last 12 months up to July, retail trade accumulated growth of 3.7%."
When questioned by Folha, the CNC reiterated information released in September, with a "downward revision of the growth projection for the retail sector in 2024", which would go from 2.2% to 2.1%. "The change reflects the negative impact caused by the uncontrolled increase in online gambling," says the text.
The report also sought the AGU and the Treasury, but received no response.
In the technical note, the Development Department also states that "it is even more complex to attribute any variation in the sector's results to spending on betting and gambling," even questioning data presented by the Central Bank in a note sent to Senator Omar Aziz (PSD-AM).
The Central Bank's note caused strong repercussions within the government, the retail sector and Congress. The document concluded that in August alone, Bolsa Família beneficiaries would have transferred R$3 billion (US$ 540m) to bets in payments via Pix. Throughout this year, the monthly gross transfer amounts to bets varied between R$18 billion and R$21 billion (US$ 3.25bn and US$ 3.77bn).
The Lula government's ministry questions these conclusions, indicating difficulties with the correct registration of economic activities on the sites. "These values ??represent gross bet values, without considering the prizes paid to bettors, which would result in lower net spending on bets."
Folha had already shown that the Central Bank's note leaves gaps and that members of the Ministry of Finance were awaiting more details on the methodology adopted in this study.
When contacted, the Central Bank declined to comment.
When asked, the Ministry of Development stated that the note does not question information from the Central Bank, but "only states that, with the official data available, it is not possible to technically assess the impact of the bets." And that, for this, "a more comprehensive study would be necessary, also considering the interaction of other economic variables."
The ministry also emphasized that the issue is considered relevant and the ministry will follow up and monitor the topic, especially from the perspective of the impacts on retail trade - which is also described in the technical note.
Regarding household debt, the ministry headed by Alckmin uses data from the Central Bank to conclude that there is stability, according to data related to the first half of the year.
"There is a certain stability in household debt with the National Financial System in relation to the accumulated income of the last 12 months, going from 48.25% in August 2023 to 47.83% at the beginning of 2024 and, finally, 47.93% in July 2024," says the text.
The note was prepared by the General Coordination of Sectoral Institutional Articulation, of the Ministry's Department of Commerce and Services.
Source: Folha
