Fixed-odds betting on sporting events was legalized by Law No. 13.756/18. However, that law did not provide the necessary regulation to operationalize the market, leaving gaps that were only resolved with the enactment of Law No. 14.790/23, which finally established the guidelines for the full functioning of this sector. With the promulgation of this law, the Ministry of Finance assumed responsibility for regulating the fixed-odds betting market, culminating in the creation of the SPA/MF – Secretariat of Prizes and Betting – as the central authority in the sector.
Following the regulation under Law No. 14,790/23, which set a 90-day deadline for compliance with the new fixed-odds betting rules as stated in the sole paragraph of Article 21, 66 companies were authorized by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance to operate in Brazil.
As a result, the Federal Government collected BRL 2.01 billion (USD375m) in concession fees. In addition to regular corporate taxes, these companies must now pay a 12% levy on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) —the total revenue generated from betting—before any deduction of prizes or operational expenses.
While the “traditional market” for fixed-odds betting is structuring itself under the new legislation, there has been, in parallel, the emergence of new forms of betting, including those based on virtual assets or blockchain technology.
According to Dune Analytics, a platform offering data analysis tools for various blockchains, Polymarket—a decentralized prediction market platform where users can bet on the outcomes of real-world events using different virtual assets—recorded an average monthly trading volume of approximately USD 200 million in recent months. Notably, in October and November 2024, the trading volume increased significantly, driven by the U.S. elections, with more than USD 3.3 billion wagered solely on the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
These platforms have gained such prominence abroad that Elon Musk, in a post on X, stated that he trusts decentralized prediction markets more than opinion polls, arguing that people bet money on what they truly believe in—something that, according to him, makes these platforms’ results more accurate.
In this context, Bitcoin-based bets proved to be highly profitable, especially due to the sharp appreciation of the cryptocurrency following Trump’s election. Bitcoin surged from around USD 69,000 on election day to over USD 75,000 the following day, reaching USD 82,479 on November 11, and setting an all-time high of USD 102,700 in early December—a nearly 50% increase in that period.
In Brazil, betting through digital assets and blockchain technology presents a vast field of opportunities, especially given the recent regulation of the sports betting market, as well as the growing interest and adoption of virtual assets in the country. The regulation process, initiated by Law No. 14,478/22, continues to evolve through ongoing debate and refinement.
The integration of these two markets—and their respective regulatory frameworks—goes far beyond the possibility of “double gains” as seen with bettors in the U.S. elections. It also enables, for instance, through the use of blockchain technology, compliance with several corporate, tax, advertising, transparency, prize payment, anti-money laundering, and user safety requirements.
Although implementing these innovations still faces significant challenges—legal, tax-related, and even educational—2025 is poised to be the year when such technological solutions consolidate, taking the Brazilian betting market to new levels of efficiency, transparency, and security.
With the growing adoption of virtual assets in general, the betting sector is exploring new ways to interact with an increasingly digital audience, establishing itself as a clear example of how technology and legislation can converge to transform market practices.
Pedro J. T. C. Torres
Master’s in Blockchain and Virtual Assets. Partner at Sydow & Torres Advogados Associados.
Spencer Sydow
PhD and Master of Law (USP). Creator of “Digital Criminal Law.” Author of books and articles. Partner at Sydow & Torres Advogados.
