According to the study “Brazil – Online Gambling Market”, the national online gaming market (which includes sports betting and casinos) is divided between legal operators, holding 49% of total revenue (R$ 17.4 billion- US$3.1bn), and illegal ones, with 51% (R$ 18.1 billion - US$3.3bn).
The figures refer to the first half of this year, when regulation began. Although the Brazilian numbers are better than the global average (where 69% of ‘Bets’ is illegal), the increasing share of non-compliant operators is concerning.
“If we reach a point where over 60% of the market is criminal, you’ll start seeing more sponsorship deals being canceled. If it reaches 75%, half of the sponsorship market will collapse,” said Vali to ge.
According to Yield Sec’s analysis, the share of illegal operators grew 10% between the first and second quarters of this year. The consultancy projects that they could reach 74% by the end of 2026.
“In the future, for legal companies to sponsor clubs, the amounts will go down because no one will be making the money they should. That’s the biggest fear,” Vali warned.
“Many of these sponsorship deals are driven by ego. Companies want to claim they’re the biggest betting brand in Brazil and that they sponsor the biggest clubs. But how long can you keep doing that when you’re no longer making money? Ego suffers when there’s no money left in your pocket,” he added.
All Brazilian Série A football clubs are currently sponsored by ‘Bets’ — 90% of them have a betting brand as their main shirt sponsor. In August, Flamengo announced a R$ 268.5 million (US$49m) deal with Betano, the largest of its kind in Brazil. Just five years ago, the club had signed a R$ 32 million-per-year (US$5.8m)agreement with Banco BRB.
Illegal operators also pose a risk to the integrity of the sport, Vali warned. Unlike licensed operators, which are required to report irregularities or suspicious betting patterns, illegal ones operate under the radar.
“There’s a total lack of integrity control in illegal ‘Bets’. If you have corrupt athletes, they won’t use legal operators where everything is reported. Everything in the illegal spectrum is outside the integrity system.”
The study identified 167 licensed operators in Brazil in the first half of the year, compared to 2,316 illegal ones.
“What we’ve seen in six months of a legal market is excellent — one of the best performances internationally. But the foundations are fragile. If nothing is done, by next year three-quarters of the market could be criminal. You start well, but then you lose your way,” Vali said.
The federal government has taken action against illegal ‘Bets’, mapping banks and fintechs that act as payment intermediaries for such companies, and launching a crackdown on their online ads.
In September, the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) of the Finance Ministry, the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), and the National Association of Gaming and Lotteries (ANJL) signed a technical cooperation agreement to improve the detection and blocking of illegal websites.
For Vali, such enforcement is the best way to protect the market and increase tax revenue — as the government seeks to expand ‘Bets’ taxation, currently at 12%.
“Instead of worrying about regulating the legal ones, you need to focus on fighting crime. Get rid of crime — or they’ll take your market,” he stated.
“Brazil has set an age limit for betting (18 years). Of course you do that — everyone does. But unless you police the market, that’s an opportunity for crime. Criminals will think: ‘What about the 15-year-olds?’ They’re easy to find on social media, Roblox, or Fortnite. I can find those kids. In a few years, they’ll be 18 — and they won’t be betting with legal companies,” he concluded.
Source: ge
