Legal uncertainty in the iGaming sector threatens investments and undermines confidence in Brazil.
This is a reflection I have been developing in recent days about the impact of taxation and legal insecurity on Brazil’s iGaming ecosystem.
For years, the online gaming market in Brazil operated like a casino with no clear rules. Companies ran their businesses, investments flowed, and the government simply watched — without taking on the role of the dealer, the one responsible for organizing and ensuring the integrity of the game.
This poker metaphor helps explain the situation: the table was set, the players (companies) joined the game, but only now has the house (the government) decided to officially regulate it.
So far, so good. The sector adapted, followed the new rules, and continued to operate. But just when it seemed the game was balanced, came the plot twist:
“We’re going to collect 30% of all the chips you’ve won since the table opened.”
The charge without cause
What’s not being highlighted in the headlines is that companies already pay substantial taxes — between 30% and 36% of their operating revenue — including GGR Tax (12%), Corporate Income Tax (25%), Social Contribution on Net Profits – CSLL (9%), PIS/COFINS (9.25%), and ISS (2%–5%), depending on the municipality.
Even so, the government is attempting to apply a retroactive tax, as if the industry had not been taxed at all — which simply isn’t true.
The new risk: GGR to 24%
As if retroactivity weren’t enough, a new bill now proposes to double the GGR rate from 12% to 24%, under the justification of “protecting citizens.”
With this move, the risk is no longer in the cards — it’s on the table. A retroactive charge means changing the rules of the payout after the cards have already been shown.
The bad beat in the story
In a casino, trust in the fairness of the house is everything. If players suspect that the rules can be changed retroactively, they simply stop sitting down to play.
The predictable outcome of this bad beat is:
1 - The big international players (investors) will look for tables in other countries.
2 - The flow of chips (investments) into the Brazilian casino will dry up.
3 - The house’s (government’s) future revenue will drop dramatically.
What was meant to be a short-term fiscal “jackpot” turns into a losing strategy for the entire ecosystem.
A successful casino attracts players with clear, fair, and stable rules. No serious bettor sits down at the table if they believe the house can rewrite the past.
The message Brazil is sending to the business world is extremely dangerous: here, the house doesn’t play with its cards on the table.
In the game of economic development, the only safe bet is legal certainty. Without it, the table empties.
More than debating narratives, we need to debate structure: stable rules, predictability, and legal security are the foundations of any healthy market.
Cármen Noble
Managing Partner at VC15
