The market also lists other potential candidates: Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) at 5%; Paraná governor Ratinho Júnior (PSD) at 2%; and former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), also at 2%. Other members of the Bolsonaro family add up to 1%, including Flávio, Michelle, and Eduardo.
Despite still leading, Lula’s odds have worsened since early November. On November 1, Polymarket showed him with a 60% chance of victory, compared to 22% for Tarcísio de Freitas. Renan Santos had 8.5% at the time.
Unlike Brazilian Bets, which cannot legally offer political markets, Polymarket allows wagering on political and economic events — and the more unlikely the outcome, the bigger the payout if it happens.
Therefore, the percentages shown reflect only bettors’ expectations, not voting intention polls. The more money staked on a candidate, the higher their percentage appears on the chart.
Source: Metrópoles
