According to the analysis, the sector has not caused a debt crisis, accounting for only between 0.2% and 0.5% of household consumption and 0.1% to 0.3% of the national GDP. Brazilian families spend around 30% of their income paying off debts — and this figure does not include current housing costs. What is the impact of sports betting on that percentage? LCA Consultoria Econômica conducted a study that answered this question: the impact is less than 0.5%.
This means that the main difficulty Brazilians face in reducing debt-related expenses is due to other factors, such as the high interest rates charged by banks, says André Gelfi, director and co-founder of IBJR. “The formal financial system charges interest rates as high as 451% per year on revolving credit cards and maintains a banking spread of 31.5%, the third highest in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund.”
In 2024, Brazilian families paid approximately BRL 860 billion (US$160bn) in credit interest, according to data from the Central Bank and IBGE. Meanwhile, in 2025, the regulated betting market is expected to generate a much smaller amount: around BRL 38 billion (US$7bn), according to another study by LCA and Instituto Locomotiva for IBJR.
According to Gelfi, another factor that influences this scenario, in addition to the high cost of credit access in Brazil, is the illegal sports betting market. “Both phenomena, on different scales, affect families’ disposable income and financial balance. If the goal is to protect consumers’ income, a responsible debate must focus on expensive credit and illegality — the two fronts that drain purchasing power and deserve equal scrutiny,” he argues.
Combating illegality
Since January 2025, when the Ministry of Finance’s rules for fixed-odds betting and online gaming came into effect, Brazil’s regulated market has been consolidated. Licensed companies must meet a series of requirements, including registration in Brazil with at least 20% of national capital; payment of BRL 30 million (US$5.5m) for a five-year license; maintenance of BRL 5 million (US$933,000) in a guarantee account; and prohibition of access to minors under 18.
In taxation, following federal government rules, companies entering the formal market made an initial payment of BRL 30 million (US$5.5m) for authorization. The sector is taxed under a consumption model composed of 12% on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) — the amount wagered minus player returns — in addition to PIS, Cofins, and social security contributions, resulting in a total effective tax rate of around 25%.
Companies also pay income taxes such as IRPJ and CSLL, along with a regulatory oversight fee. These resources are allocated to strategic areas such as sports, tourism, public safety, social security, and education.
“Even though it has been regulated for only a few months, the legal betting sector has already demonstrated its economic and social potential. By September 2025, the segment had generated BRL 6.85 billion (US$1.27bn) in taxes, contributing to essential areas of Brazilian society. It plays a relevant role in the formal economy but faces a heavy tax burden and legal uncertainty caused by constant attempts to change tax rules,” says Gelfi.
Moreover, Brazilians understand betting as entertainment, not investment — as 70% stated in a survey by the Brazilian Financial and Capital Markets Association (Anbima).
To consolidate this progress, however, combating illegality remains crucial. Research by LCA and Locomotiva shows that around 51% of bets still take place on illegal platforms, without oversight or player protection, representing an annual revenue loss of more than BRL 10 billion (US$1.8bn) for the country.
Additionally, 87% of surveyed bettors believe the government should act more forcefully against illegal operators, highlighting a real social and economic concern. They recognize the dangers of unlicensed platforms, such as fraud, non-payment, lack of player support, and money laundering risks. “Illegal platforms mainly advertise on social media, which must adopt stronger measures to curb this practice,” says Gelfi.
Informative action
Based on this finding, IBJR launched the Chega de Bode na Sala (“No More Elephant in the Room”) campaign, created by agency We, to educate the public and raise awareness among authorities about the risks of the illegal betting market. The campaign, running from September to December 2025, includes the launch of Betalert, an interactive microsite that allows users to check whether a platform is licensed by the federal government.
“The campaign took an important step by turning an invisible problem into a public issue, explaining clearly how to identify safe platforms and why regulation is vital to protect consumers and strengthen the sector,” says Gelfi.
In essence, IBJR’s proposal is to expand the debate on effective ways to address Brazil’s high household debt on two fronts. “We advocate for an honest, balanced debate — free from moralism — about the real forces that shape household budgets,” concludes Gelfi.
Source: Veja
