The regulated betting market in Brazil may be living on borrowed time!
It might still survive a few more months, but given the way things are going and the suffocation it’s experiencing, I must say honestly: I don’t see a long future for it.
Last week, senators approved strict restrictions on advertising by licensed betting operators.
Among the approved measures is the prohibition of ads during live broadcasts of sporting events — a rule that, in my view, makes no sense (like many others).
It doesn’t seem fair to those who believed in the regulated market, paid BRL 30 million for a license, contribute millions more in taxes, and generate tens of thousands of jobs — and are now forbidden from advertising their brand precisely at the moment that makes the most sense for their product.
As if that weren't enough, now it's the Ministry of Finance’s turn, with its insatiable appetite for revenue, to further suffocate the regulated fixed-odds betting market.
The issue is that the government sees this market as its best option to compensate for losses from the IOF tax.
And the new plan? Increase the tax rate on betting sites from 12% to 18% of Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR).
The theory behind this measure may sound appealing, but in practice, the government is “killing its goose that lays the golden eggs.”
The truth is that raising the tax burden will negatively impact the fixed-odds betting sector, even causing already-licensed companies to suspend or shut down their operations in Brazil.
The main effects of this would be: a decrease in tax revenue (which goes directly against the government’s intention, as companies will exit the regulated market and stop paying taxes); and an increase in unemployment (as a large part of the iGaming industry will have to lay off workers).
It’s worth noting that the National Association of Gaming and Lotteries (ANJL) estimates that the illegal market represents about 60% of the fixed-odds betting sector in Brazil. In the first quarter of 2025, while the regulated market moved around BRL 3.1 billion monthly, it is estimated that the illegal market operated with between BRL 6.5 and 7 billion monthly.
Well, that’s exactly the kind of situation the government should be focused on combating!
But instead of targeting this distortion, we’re seeing moves that make it harder — if not impossible — for licensed operators to function, practically pushing them toward the foreign or illegal markets.
That seems like a serious mistake to me!
2025 is a landmark year as it marks the long-overdue regulation of sports betting in Brazil — five years late — bringing legal certainty, oversight, job creation, innovation, and investment.
The regulated fixed-odds betting market is very promising and is striving to grow in the right way, complying with all the rules that have been imposed.
Before treating this sector as a fiscal lifeline — something that may seem tempting in the short term — the government must allow it to develop and consolidate.
Listen — regulation is, above all, about protection! Protection of the market, protection of the government, protection of the bettor, and protection of responsible gaming!
Regulation cannot be, above all, about revenue generation — or the system becomes unworkable!
Yes, taxation is important and necessary.
But overdoing it causes suffocation — and the death of the market.
And killing this market before it even starts delivering real results doesn’t seem very smart.
Tiago Horta Barbosa
Head of Integrity at Genius Sports for Latin America
Tiago serves on the Integrity Committee of the International Table Tennis Federation (ITTF). He holds degrees in International Relations and Law, a post-graduate diploma in Sports Law and Management (FIFA/CIES/UCA), and a master’s degree in Sports Law (ISDE Madrid). From 2012 to 2014, he served as a Police Training Officer with the OIPC-Interpol. Tiago Horta Barbosa has been notably active in the sports law sector since 2015. He specializes in sports integrity, focusing on preventing and combating match manipulation and analyzing the impact of betting markets on sports.
