The fluctuation directly reflects the house arrest order issued by Moraes against former President Jair Bolsonaro, which sparked renewed backlash from Donald Trump’s White House.
The peak of impeachment bets
The peak in bets favoring Alexandre de Moraes’ impeachment occurred on July 10, 2025, when tensions between Brazil and the United States reached a new level. On that date, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, justifying the measure as a direct response to Supreme Federal Court decisions against former President Bolsonaro, many of them signed by Moraes.
At that moment, the market reacted with increased bets that the Brazilian Senate would yield to international pressure and start an impeachment process against the minister, pushing the “yes” contract to over R$ 25 cents (US$ 0,04)—the highest value recorded so far.
Since then, however, interest in this scenario has waned, and the bet’s value has fallen, reflecting a drop in confidence that the U.S. can influence the Brazilian Congress.
Aposta Legal
Founded in 2019, Aposta Legal is a platform dedicated to providing reliable and impartial information on sports betting and online casinos. Its goal is to promote responsible and recreational gaming by offering high-quality content for bettors in Brazil and beyond.
Source: Aposta Legal
