The decline follows a trend already observed in the first quarter, when lotteries recorded revenue of R$5.5 billion (US$1.03bn), about 10% less than in the first quarter of 2024.
For the federal government, the decline has a direct impact on revenue from lotteries, which play an important role in financing public policies such as healthcare, education, security, and social use of resources.
Industry sources explain that traditional lotteries, because they are less innovative in digital mobility or marketing compared to private operators, may be losing ground.
Caixa stated that it is evaluating strategies to reverse the trend, with more incentive campaigns, modernization of betting channels—especially online—and reviewing prizes and smaller prizes to encourage betting.
The reduction in Loterias Caixa revenue this year compared to the same period in 2024 was primarily due to the lower number of accumulated prizes. Bettors, in turn, received R$4.3 billion (US$810m) in net prizes in the first half of 2025, an increase of 8.2% compared to the same period last year.
Market analysts estimate that if economic conditions improve in the second half of the year, a modest recovery is possible, but they warn that without innovation or improvements in digital services, the decline could persist.
Caixa denies that the decline is a direct result of competition from sports betting or similar games.
The reduction in revenue occurs in a scenario of economic instability, with high inflation, lower consumer purchasing power, and competition from other types of betting.
Although the R$11.6 billion (US$2.2bn) figure is significant, the 6% drop highlights the vulnerability of the lottery model to external and internal variables.
However, the maintenance of social transfers and the payment of prizes indicate that even in an adverse scenario, lotteries continue to play a relevant role in financing public policies and attracting bettors.
The challenge for Caixa and the government will be to combine innovation, regulation, and attracting prizes to reverse or at least stabilize this trend. Caixa also recorded a net accounting profit of R$9.784 billion (US$1.85bn) in the first six months of 2025, exceeding the R$5.748 billion (US$1.08bn) achieved in the same period in 2024 by 70.22%.
Source: GMB
